Mainlane container trade volumes are expected to grow by 8% on the peak leg Far East-Europe route and by 6% on the peak leg Transpacific route in full year 2014. Following a period of weaker growth these trades have shown strength since the second half of 2013 and in the year to date they have made an important contribution to global container trade which is now expected to grow by 6.1% in 2014.

Rise And Fall
The early to mid 2000s were prime years for the mainlanes with total trade growth across these routes regularly exceeding 10% y-o-y, amid a booming world economy and high levels of outsourcing to Asia. However, when the global financial crisis led to world container trade volumes contracting by an unprecedented 9.2% in 2009, total mainlane trade fell by 11.3% y-o-y to 40.9m TEU. Trade on the peak legs of the Far East-Europe and the Transpacific routes dropped that year by 14.7% and 15.1% respectively (see the Graph of the Month).
From 2009 to 2012 the mainlane trades struggled to recover as Western economies remained in the doldrums. Trade growth on the Far East-Europe peak leg was unconvincing with a further decline in trade volumes in 2012, of 4.2% y-o-y to reach 13.6m TEU. On the peak leg Transpacific route, trade also failed to achieve traction during the 2009-12 period, growing by just 0.7% y-o-y in 2011 and 0.5% y-o-y in 2012.

Route To Recovery
Following a pick up in growth during the second half of 2013, volumes on the Far East-Europe peak leg trade have risen by 8.0% in the first nine months of 2014 compared to the same period in 2013, with Northern European imports performing particularly well.
The Far East-Europe trade is projected to grow by a further 7.2% in 2015, to reach 16.6m TEU. Meanwhile, on the Transpacific peak leg trade, volumes rose by 5.6% in the first nine months of 2014 compared to the same period in 2013, when the trade’s estimated full year growth was 4.2%. US imports from Asia have grown alongside an improving US economy, which the IMF expects to grow by 2.2% in full year 2014. The peak leg Transpacific trade is projected to grow at a robust rate of 6.0% in 2015 to total 15.5m TEU.

Back But Diminished
Despite this recovery, the pattern of global demand has clearly changed since the financial crisis. Total mainlane container trade is expected to have grown by 9% between 2007 and 2014 whilst trade volumes on the non-mainlane trades are expected to have expanded by 45% during the same period. Consequently, the share of world trade held by the mainlane trades has fallen from 36% in 2007 to an expected 30% in full year 2014.

Just What The World Needed
Nevertheless the impact of the recovery of mainlane trade volumes has been positive. During 2012-13 global container trade growth averaged just 3.9%, but since then, the extra demand from the peak legs of the mainlane routes has lifted world container trade to a more robust level of growth, expected to average 6.4% in 2014-15. In terms of elevating box volume growth back to healthier levels the mainlane recovery has been just what the container world needed.

(Source : Clarksons)